THE UNEXPECTED EFFECT OF TRUMP’S TARIFFS ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY (01/08/2026)
Twelve months after the United States implemented its package of tariff measures, macroeconomic indicators point to a restructuring of international trade. Contrary to initial projections, which anticipated a widespread standstill in trade flows, the market has evolved towards an operational model characterised by regionalisation and the prevalence of bilateral agreements and technical exceptions over multilateral frameworks. Against this backdrop, the European Union has managed to maintain stability in its transatlantic trade, recording an increase in export volumes thanks to agreements reached prior to the new tariffs coming into force.
In the Asian region, changes to the tariff framework have led to a significant shift in traditional trade routes. The tariff increase on direct trade flows to the United States has driven the consolidation of intermediate logistics and assembly hubs in countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and Mexico. This geographical diversification enables operators to access the US market under optimised tariff conditions, which in turn has led to stricter traceability requirements and rules of origin at customs offices of destination to verify the origin of industrial components.
At the macroeconomic level, the pass-through of tariff-related cost increases to price indices has been more moderate than estimated, mainly due to the exemption scheme implemented for critical inputs and the absorption of trade margins by importers and exporters. At the same time, the impact across Latin America has been uneven: economies such as Mexico have strengthened their logistical position under the USMCA framework, whilst commodity-exporting countries have experienced fluctuations stemming from changes in demand from intermediate markets. The current context requires corporations to prioritise logistical flexibility within their value chains to maintain the viability of their international operations.
The unexpected effect of Donald Trump’s tariffs on the global economy – Mundiario
THE FIVE BOTTLE NECKS THREATENING GLOBAL TRADE SND SHAKING UP THE ENERGY AND GRAIN MARKETS (01/08/2026)
International maritime traffic is experiencing significant operational restrictions across five key logistics corridors, according to a recent report by the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR). The technical analysis warns that the current regional situation is disrupting approximately 11 per cent of global maritime traffic, affecting 25 per cent of cargo carried by tankers and 19 per cent of global container traffic. One of the most severely affected chokepoints is the Strait of Hormuz, a route through which 20 per cent of crude oil trade and a third of nitrogen fertilisers pass. Following the security incidents recorded in the region, traffic through this corridor fell by an average of 68 per cent during 2026, introducing risk factors into the global energy supply.
At the same time, the logistics corridor connecting the Red Sea with the Mediterranean is showing structural changes in its flows. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait has seen an overall 42 per cent reduction in vessel traffic, with a 92 per cent drop in container ship traffic, resulting in the majority of manufactured goods being diverted to the Cape of Good Hope route. Consequently, the Suez Canal’s operational activity has fallen from 61 to 41 daily transits, directly affecting shipping operators’ cost structures due to increased sailing times and changes in insurance premiums.
Furthermore, the transport of agricultural commodities is constrained by operational limitations in the Black Sea region. Vessel traffic through the Bosphorus Strait has recorded a year-on-year decline of 21 per cent, whilst the Kerch Strait has seen a 78 per cent contraction in traffic flows compared with previous levels, limiting connectivity to key grain port infrastructure. The accumulation of these logistical disruptions highlights the need for corporate players to diversify their supply chains to mitigate the risks inherent in reliance on single transit routes.
The five bottlenecks threatening global trade and shaking up the energy and grain markets – Infobae
KEY POINTS: EUROPE SEEKS TO FIND ITS PLACE IN THE NEW LANDSCAPE OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE (07/08/2026)
The European Union is making progress in drafting regulations aimed at prioritising the participation of EU operators in public procurement processes, a measure that seeks to align its regulatory framework with the economic security standards already implemented by jurisdictions such as the United States, China, India and Australia. This legislative update reflects an adaptation of European trade policy towards a model in which international trade is increasingly subject to geopolitical strategy and the protection of critical supply chains, whilst not formally abandoning the mechanisms of the World Trade Organisation (WTO).
The shift in the trade and public procurement framework has direct implications for strategic sectors such as the defence and infrastructure industries. Recent developments in the awarding of government contracts — such as the reallocation of naval programmes in Germany — highlight a restructuring of suppliers at state level. Nevertheless, the sector’s financial indicators show resilience; companies involved in these adjustments have reported operational growth and an expansion of their order books, demonstrating the capacity of Europe’s industrial base to absorb changes in tendering policies.
For economic operators, this transition within the European Union means they must adapt their market access strategies. Given that the EU economy remains highly open and dependent on foreign trade, the shift towards a system based on economic security will require companies to strengthen their regulatory compliance protocols and demonstrate the strategic value of their operations within the single market.
Key points: Europe seeks to find its place in the new landscape of international trade – Cinco Días
IMO WARNING OF SERIOUS THREATS TO GLOBAL TRADE FOLLOWING ATTACK ON A SHIP OFF THE COAST OF YEMEN (12/08/2026)
The International Maritime Organisation (IMO), through its Secretary-General, has issued a technical statement regarding the recent security incidents recorded on shipping routes off the coast of Yemen, following the operational incident involving the merchant vessel ‘Tihama’. The organisation has noted that the persistence of these disruptions in strategic maritime transit corridors creates structural constraints on the normal functioning of global supply chains.
The regulatory body emphasises that operational instability in this region has a direct impact on the scheduling of commercial freight and on the reliability of the international maritime transport system. This situation makes it imperative for corporate stakeholders and shipping companies to strengthen their route monitoring protocols and adjust the risk matrices linked to their foreign trade operations, in order to manage the additional costs associated with logistical diversions and ensure the practical viability of transactions.
THE NEXT BATTLE IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE WILL BE IN DIGITAL CUSTOMS (13/08/2026)
International customs management is undergoing a phase of technological modernisation driven by guidelines from the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and the World Customs Organisation’s (WCO) Smart Customs programme. This structural advancement goes beyond mere document digitisation to focus on systems interoperability, big data analysis and artificial intelligence. The technical objective of these implementations is to refine risk management models, enabling customs authorities to identify patterns, classify goods and optimise physical inspections without creating unnecessary friction in legitimate trade flows.
At a regional level, jurisdictions such as Mexico are accelerating the adoption of these standards. Recent regulatory updates to the Single Window for Foreign Trade Procedures and the implementation of the Single Electronic File aim to consolidate operational traceability. Instruments such as the Electronic Declaration of Value (MVE) require operators to submit critical information electronically prior to customs clearance. This advance submission of documentation enables the authorities to cross-reference operational variables—such as the importer’s history, routes and origin—focusing controls on transactions that show algorithmic discrepancies.
For the corporate sector, the transition towards interconnected customs systems is redefining compliance standards in foreign trade. The smooth flow of goods across borders will increasingly depend on the quality, consistency and traceability of the electronic data provided by companies. In this new regulatory environment, the correct structuring of information and the elimination of inconsistencies prior to clearance are becoming critical factors in ensuring logistical efficiency and avoiding additional administrative requirements.
The next battle in international trade will be over digital customs – The Logistics World
SPANISH GOODS EXPORTS HIT RECORD FIGURES IN JUNE AND GROW BY 5.3% YEAR-ON-YEAR (18/08/2026)
Spain’s foreign trade sector recorded a turnover of 35,545 million euros during June 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.3 per cent. According to data compiled by the Customs Department, this trend is underpinned by the performance of the energy sector, whose exports rose by 49.9 per cent, driven by domestic refining capacity in the face of fluctuations in international prices, as well as by a 2.4 per cent increase in the volume of non-energy exports. At the same time, imports totalled 43,232 million euros, resulting in a trade deficit of 7,686 million euros for the month.
In the cumulative analysis for the first half of the financial year, Spanish exports of goods totalled 201,134 million euros, reflecting a 2 per cent increase compared with the same period last year, despite the current context of logistical adjustments in international trade routes. Meanwhile, half-yearly imports stood at 233,915 million euros. At sectoral level, the export structure continues to consolidate, underpinned by recurring surpluses in the food, beverages and non-chemical semi-manufactured goods categories.
From a geographical perspective, the European Union remains the key market, accounting for 62.4 per cent of shipments in June, which has enabled a regional trade surplus of 12,764 million euros to be maintained over the half-year, with Portugal, France and the United Kingdom as the main destinations. Furthermore, the corporate base focused on foreign trade is showing signs of structural stabilisation, with a year-on-year increase of 0.8 per cent in the number of regular operators, reaching a total of 43,664 exporting entities which account for virtually all of the country’s international trade transactions.
Spanish goods exports hit record figures in June and grow by 5.3 per cent year-on-year – La Moncloa
US ACCUSES 40 COUNTRIES, INCLUDING THE EU, OF LAUNDERING CHINESE EXPORTS TO CIRCUMVENT ITS TARIFFS (18/08/2026)
The US trade authorities have issued a technical report assessing the transhipment and triangulation practices involving goods originating in China via 40 third-party jurisdictions, including the European Union. The government document estimates that the trade flows subject to these potential discrepancies in origin amount to approximately 75,000 million dollars, impacting tax revenue and the tariff structure implemented by the US administration. According to the analysis, this logistics operation focuses primarily on specific industrial sectors, such as electrical components, integrated circuits and aluminium products.
The report classifies intermediary jurisdictions into three levels of integration within global supply chains, based on their logistics infrastructure and export volume. The first level comprises economies with high industrial capacity (such as the European Union, Canada, Mexico and Japan), where traceability alerts centre on assembly processes and the application of rules of origin. Practices documented by US customs include alterations to labelling, repackaging, re-invoicing and minor processing that alter the declaration of the country of origin in order to gain preferential tariff treatment.
In response, the US administration has announced the development of a border monitoring tool based on artificial intelligence algorithms. This system will process logistical variables, maritime transport routes and production times to verify the accuracy of the data declared by importers. For international operators, this technological advance represents a significant tightening of customs compliance protocols, given that the detection of anomalies in documentary traceability may result in the retrospective assessment of customs duties covering an entire financial year.
SWITZERLAND AND CHINA CONCLUDE NEGOTIATIONS TO OPTIMISE THEIR FREE TRADE AGREEMENT (20/08/2026)
Delegations from Switzerland and the People’s Republic of China have formally concluded negotiations to update and optimise their bilateral Free Trade Agreement (FTA), which has been in force since 2014. The technical agreement, announced following the institutional meeting held in Bern, resolves the market access asymmetries present in the previous framework, under which virtually all Chinese imports entered Switzerland duty-free, compared with only 50 per cent of Swiss exports to the Asian market. With this structural revision, 99.8 per cent of Swiss exports will benefit from full tariff exemptions in China.
The new regulatory framework broadens its scope to include updated provisions on rules of origin, customs facilitation, trade in services, digital transactions and competition. Furthermore, the text introduces strengthened safeguards for Swiss investors’ access to the Chinese market and incorporates expanded clauses relating to environmental regulations and labour rights, bringing the agreement into line with current international supply chain standards.
Following five rounds of negotiations that began in September 2024, both governments will submit the document for legal review with the aim of signing it before the end of the 2026 financial year, followed by parliamentary ratification. This update strengthens bilateral trade relations with Switzerland’s third-largest trading partner, providing businesses with a stable regulatory framework to diversify their export markets and enhance their logistical competitiveness.
TRUMP LASHS OUT AT CANADA FOLLOWING THE BREAKDOWN OF TARIFF NEGOTIATIONS (23/08/2026)
Bilateral trade negotiations between the United States and Canada have concluded without a final agreement being reached, leading to the imposition of a 50 per cent tariff on Canadian imports, affecting an estimated trade volume of 24,000 million euros. The US administration has argued that the lack of consensus stems from structural differences over market access and tariff barriers previously applied to the agricultural sector, as well as last-minute changes to the terms of the joint draft that altered the technical balance of the negotiations.
For their part, the Canadian authorities have justified their withdrawal from the talks by citing the introduction of unforeseen conditions by Washington in strategic sectors such as steel and the automotive industry, factors which jeopardised the economic viability of the agreement. In response to the new US tariff structure, Canada has announced that it is preparing reciprocal and proportionate trade measures that will affect imports of steel, dairy products, agricultural machinery and paper from the United States.
The crux of the technical disagreement centred on the customs treatment of the automotive sector. Whilst both delegations had reached an initial consensus to reduce tariffs from 25 per cent to 15 per cent on conventional vehicles, the talks stalled as they failed to find common ground on extending these tariff exemptions to medium and heavy commercial vehicles. This situation temporarily halts the prospects of consolidating a renewed preferential framework between the two North American economies.
Trump lashes out at Canada after tariff negotiations break down – El Periódico
THE EU PROMOTES TRADE AGREEMENTS WITH ASEAN COUNTRIES (26/08/2026)
The European Union is making progress with its market diversification strategy by developing and updating its regulatory framework with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). This region, now firmly established as the EU’s third-largest trading partner outside the bloc, shows sustained growth and consumption trends. In response to the current reorganisation of international logistics flows, the European Commission has prioritised the conclusion of free trade agreements in the region, currently operating under the legal frameworks already in place with Vietnam and Singapore.
As part of the expansion of these bilateral relations, the EU authorities concluded the technical negotiations on the agreement with Indonesia in September 2025. This legal text provides for the removal of tariffs on the majority of trade in goods, whilst maintaining specific safeguard mechanisms and quotas for goods classified as sensitive. The document is currently undergoing institutional review, with formal signing expected before the end of the 2026 financial year, to be followed by ratification. In parallel, the Commission is taking forward negotiations at an advanced stage for the conclusion of agreements with the Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia, aimed at harmonising customs procedures.
At sectoral level, the impact of this trade framework on Spanish fruit and vegetable exports reflects different stages of consolidation. According to customs authority records for the 2025 financial year, trade was primarily concentrated in Singapore, a market which absorbed 928 tonnes worth 3.7 million euros, followed by Malaysia with 740 tonnes valued at 1.9 million euros. Meanwhile, trade flows to Vietnam (41 tonnes), Thailand (5 tonnes) and the Philippines (2 tonnes) are at an early stage, with their potential for growth dependent on the gradual implementation of new tariff agreements and the reduction of technical barriers.
The EU is promoting trade agreements witch ASEAN countries – eComercio Agrario
THE WTO GOODS TRADE BAROMETER SIGNALS CONTINUED GROWTH DESPITE GEOPOLITICAL UNCERTAINTY (07/09/2026)
The World Trade Organization’s latest Goods Trade Barometer indicates that global merchandise trade remains above its recent trend despite continuing geopolitical tensions and disruptions to international supply chains. The indicator reached 102.0, exceeding both the benchmark of 100 and the previous reading of 101.7. A value above 100 indicates that merchandise trade is developing above its recent trend, suggesting that international goods trade has maintained momentum despite the uncertainty affecting global markets.
The components of the barometer show considerable variation between sectors. The strongest result was recorded by the electronic components index, at 104.9, reflecting strong demand associated with investment in artificial intelligence and related technologies. Export orders, which provide an important indication of future trade activity, reached 103.5. International air freight stood at 102.8, agricultural raw materials at 102.6 and automotive products at 101.5. The only component below the reference level was container shipping, at 99.6, indicating that maritime logistics continue to face greater pressure than some other areas of international commerce. Together, the indicators point towards a trading system that is adapting to changing sources of demand rather than experiencing a uniform slowdown.
The WTO’s wider projections nevertheless indicate that geopolitical developments could affect future trade performance. Its March 2026 outlook projected global merchandise-trade growth of 1.9% for 2026 under its reference scenario, compared with 1.4% under a higher-energy-price scenario associated with disruptions from the conflict in the Middle East. At the same time, sustained investment in artificial intelligence could contribute an additional 0.5 percentage points to merchandise-trade growth. The barometer therefore illustrates the coexistence of two opposing forces: geopolitical instability is disrupting traditional trade routes, while technological investment and demand for electronic components are creating new sources of international trade growth.
The WTO Goods Trade Barometer signals continued growth despite geopolitical uncertainty – WTO
SERVICES BECOME INCREASINGLY CENTRAL TO GLOBAL TRADE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT (11/09/2026)
Services are becoming increasingly integrated into international trade and production, a process known as “servification”. Financial, transport, logistics, telecommunications and professional services provide essential inputs across almost every sector of the economy. According to a new report by UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), services account for around 30–35 % of the value added in manufacturing and approximately 20 % in agriculture, demonstrating their growing importance beyond the traditional services sector.
Global services exports reached $9.7 trillion in 2025, an increase of 8.3 % compared with the previous year and almost twice their level a decade earlier. Digitalisation has accelerated this expansion, with digitally deliverable services exports growing by an average of 7 % annually between 2015 and 2024. However, the contribution of services differs considerably between economies. Services represent around one-third of the intermediate inputs incorporated into industrial exports in developed economies, compared with 27 % in developing economies and 13 % in least developed countries with available data.
The report highlights that existing government data can provide a clearer understanding of who benefits from international services trade. Linking tax, customs, business and employment records can help policymakers analyse how participation in services trade affects employment, productivity and economic diversification. For example, linked data from Ecuador showed that companies entering digital services export markets increased employment by around 21 %, while data from Uruguay demonstrated stronger sales among domestic suppliers connected to meat producers exporting to China.
UNCTAD therefore recommends improving the collection and integration of services-trade data by commercial partner, service category and method of supply. Better data could allow governments to identify opportunities, evaluate the effects of trade policies and develop more targeted strategies for internationalisation. The report also stresses the importance of data protection, anonymisation, technical support and international cooperation in building these systems.
SPAINS DIGITAL SERVICES EXPORTS APPROACH €83.2 BILLION AS INTERNATIONAL TRADE SHIFTS TOWARDS SERVICES (11/09/2026)
Spain’s international trade in services is undergoing a structural transformation as digital activities become an increasingly important source of export revenue. In 2025, Spanish exports of digital services reached €83.212 billion, representing 36.9% of total service exports. Between 2019 and 2025, digital-service exports increased at an average annual rate of 11.1%, resulting in cumulative growth of 66.8%. The expansion has contributed to a digital-services trade surplus of €25.36 billion and increased Spain’s share of the global market to 1.79%.
The growth of digital services reflects a wider change in the structure of international trade. Services account for more than 70% of global GDP, while their share of international exports has historically been considerably smaller than that of goods. Digital technologies have changed this relationship by allowing activities such as software development, consulting, financial services, education and specialised professional services to be delivered internationally without requiring the physical movement of products. In Spain, non-tourism service exports reached €120.16 billion in 2025, exceeding investment challenges. Spanish digital exports remain concentrated in professional services, which represented 51% of the total, and computer services, which accounted for 20.5%. The European Union received 51.5% of Spain’s digital-service exports in 2024, followed by the United States, the United Kingdom and Latin America. The report also highlights the importance of investment in intangible assets, such as software, research and development and intellectual property, which represented 23% of fixed capital formation in Spain in 2024. With artificial intelligence expected to further reduce barriers to international service provision tourism exports of €105.15 billion and indicating a broader diversification of the country’s service-export base.
The expansion of digital trade nevertheless faces regulatory and investment challenges. Spanish digital exports remain concentrated in professional services, which represented 51% of the total, and computer services, which accounted for 20.5%. The European Union received 51.5% of Spain’s digital-service exports in 2024, followed by the United States, the United Kingdom and Latin America. The report also highlights the importance of investment in intangible assets, such as software, research and development and intellectual property, which represented 23% of fixed capital formation in Spain in 2024. With artificial intelligence expected to further reduce barriers to international service provision, Spain’s digital sector is becoming an increasingly significant component of the country’s participation in global trade.
Spain’s digital services exports approach €83.2 billion as international trade shifts towards
GALICIAS AGRI-FOOD SECTOR CALLS FOR GREATER GEOPOLITICAL STABILITY IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE (11/09/2026)
Galicia’s agri-food sector has called for greater geopolitical stability and respect for international trade as it prepares to address the challenges facing the sector. The request reflects the dependence of food producers and exporters on stable international markets, predictable trade regulations and reliable logistics networks. Agricultural and food products are particularly sensitive to disruptions because changes in transport costs, market access, energy prices or trade restrictions can quickly affect production and export conditions.
The sector’s position comes amid wider uncertainty in global trade, where geopolitical tensions are affecting international supply chains and increasing the importance of market diversification. For exporters, access to foreign markets depends on a combination of commercial demand and regulatory conditions, including sanitary requirements, certification procedures and customs arrangements. Sudden restrictions can therefore have direct consequences for producers and food-processing companies, particularly those whose business models rely heavily on external markets.
The situation illustrates the wider relationship between geopolitical stability and international commerce. Although agricultural businesses operate at a local level, their supply chains and customer bases increasingly extend beyond national borders. Maintaining predictable trading conditions is therefore relevant not only to exporters but also to the wider food-production system. Galicia’s call for greater stability reflects a broader concern among European exporters that geopolitical uncertainty could increase operating costs and complicate access to international markets. The case demonstrates how developments in international politics can translate directly into commercial decisions within regional industries.
FINE FOOD LEADS CATALONIA’S AGRI-FOOD EXPORTS AMID A GENERAL SLOWDOWN (12/09/2026)
Catalonia’s agri-food exports experienced a slowdown during the first half of 2026, with international trade falling 8.7% compared with the same period of the previous year. The decline follows an exceptional period of elevated food prices during 2022 and 2023 and the subsequent normalisation of international markets. Despite the overall reduction, higher-value “fine food” products remained the largest source of export revenue, generating approximately €3.04 billion, or 44% of Catalonia’s total agri-food exports of €6.918 billion.
The performance of individual sectors varied significantly. Sweets and confectionery generated €818.6 million, while beverages and juices reached €555.2 million. Both categories increased their export volumes but recorded lower monetary values, demonstrating the effect of falling international prices. The meat industry experienced the most significant decline, with export value falling by 18%. The pork sector was particularly affected by restrictions introduced following outbreaks of African swine fever, resulting in a 22% decline in export value and a 7.6% reduction in volume between the two periods.
Other sectors were affected by the normalisation of prices. Vegetable-oil exports fell by 14.9% in value and 16.4% in volume, following the unusually high prices generated by drought conditions in previous years. Olive-oil prices, for example, declined substantially from their 2023 peak. Geographically, the European Union remained the principal destination, accounting for 65.5% of Catalan agri-food exports, while Asian markets including South Korea, Vietnam and Singapore gained importance. Catalonia’s experience demonstrates how export performance is shaped not only by the quantity of goods sold abroad but also by prices, health restrictions, market diversification and changing international demand.
Fine food leads Catalonia’s agri-food exports amid a general slowdown – elEconomista
WHY THE BAB EL-MANDEB STRAIT IS CRITICAL TO GLOBAL TRADE AND HOW HOUTHI ADVANCES COULD TRIGGER A MARITIME CRISIS (14/09/2026)
The strategic importance of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has increased following the disruption of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Located between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, the strait connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and provides access to the Suez Canal, making it an essential trade route between Europe and Asia. Around one-quarter of global maritime traffic passes through the wider Red Sea corridor, alongside significant volumes of oil and liquefied natural gas.
Recent Houthi advances in Yemen have created additional uncertainty for international shipping. According to the article, Houthi forces, backed by Iran, took control of Perim Island and strengthened their presence along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including the port city of Mokha. Control of Perim is particularly significant because of its strategic position within the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and its proximity to major shipping routes. Although the Houthis have stated that their maritime restrictions target Saudi-linked vessels, previous attacks during the Gaza conflict affected ships without clear connections to Israel, creating concerns among shipping companies.
The potential economic consequences extend beyond the region. Before the current disruptions, approximately five million barrels of oil per day travelled through the Red Sea route, while around 8 % of global liquefied natural gas shipments passed through Bab el-Mandeb. Saudi Arabia has also increased its reliance on the route for exports from the port of Yanbu following the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz.
A major interruption at Bab el-Mandeb could therefore place further pressure on energy markets and global supply chains. Previous Houthi attacks led several major shipping companies to suspend transit through the Red Sea, forcing vessels to take longer routes around Africa and increasing transportation costs, insurance premiums and delivery times.
EURO AREA RECORDS A €14.2 BILLION TRADE SURPLUS IN JULY 2026(16/09/2026)
The euro area recorded a €14.2 billion surplus in trade in goods with the rest of the world in July 2026, compared with €10.7 billion in July 2025. Exports reached €276 billion, an annual increase of 9%, while imports rose by 7.9% to €261.8 billion. The improvement in the monthly surplus was mainly linked to stronger balances in chemicals, other manufactured goods, and food and drink, although the surplus in machinery and vehicles declined.
Despite the positive July result, the wider January–July period shows a more mixed picture. The euro area’s cumulative trade surplus fell sharply to €17 billion, compared with €92.8 billion during the same period in 2025. Exports increased only 1.2% year-on-year to €1.764 trillion, while imports grew 5.8% to €1.747 trillion. This indicates that import growth has been considerably stronger than export growth during the first seven months of the year.
Trade within the euro area also expanded, reaching €1.654 trillion between January and July, an increase of 5% compared with the previous year. At EU level, the situation was weaker: the EU recorded an €8 billion extra-EU surplus in July, but a €13.8 billion deficit for January–July, compared with an €84 billion surplus in the same period of 2025. EU extra-EU exports declined 0.6%, while imports increased 5.9%.
The figures also highlight important differences between trading partners and product categories. In July, the EU recorded its largest surplus with the United States (€17.9 billion) and the United Kingdom (€17.8 billion), while its largest deficit was with China (€36.5 billion). Among products, chemicals generated a €19.6 billion surplus, while energy produced a €28 billion deficit.
STRAIT OF HORMUZ CRISIS INCREASES PRESSURE ON GLOBAL TRADE AND ENERGY SUPPLY CHAINS (14/09/2026)
The disruption of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has increased uncertainty across international energy and transport markets. The narrow waterway between Iran and Oman is one of the world’s principal maritime energy corridors, through which approximately one-fifth of global oil supplies pass each day, alongside significant quantities of liquefied natural gas. Reports of attacks on commercial vessels, fires and threats to shipping have reduced normal maritime activity and increased concerns over the reliability of one of the world’s most strategically important trade routes.
The disruption has implications beyond the immediate region because energy supplies form a fundamental component of international production and transportation. Higher oil prices can increase freight, manufacturing and distribution costs, while uncertainty surrounding maritime security can raise insurance premiums and affect the scheduling decisions of shipping operators. Maritime authorities have reported a serious security environment involving threats to commercial vessels, surveillance activity, drones and intermittent communications. The resulting reduction in shipping through the strait demonstrates how the vulnerability of a single maritime chokepoint can affect supply chains extending across multiple continents.
The situation has also encouraged governments and energy companies to consider alternative logistics arrangements. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline and the United Arab Emirates’ pipeline infrastructure to Fujairah provide routes that can reduce dependence on Hormuz for certain energy exports. These alternatives cannot entirely replace the strategic importance of the strait, but they form part of a broader effort to diversify supply routes and reduce exposure to individual geopolitical risks. The crisis therefore illustrates an increasingly important feature of international trade: companies and governments are placing greater emphasis on supply-chain resilience, route diversification and contingency planning as geopolitical instability becomes a more significant factor in global commerce.
TRUMP’S TRADE THREATS INCREASE UNCERTAINTY AS CANADA AND THE EU STRENGHTEN ECONOMIC RELATIONS (17/09/2026)
Trade relations between the United States, Canada and the European Union have entered another period of uncertainty following statements by US President Donald Trump concerning closer economic ties between Canada and the EU. Trump stated that the United States could impose high tariffs on European products, and potentially restrict trade in certain areas, if the proposed strengthening of Canada-EU relations were considered hostile to US interests. The statements came as Canada was seeking to deepen its economic relationship with Europe amid continuing tariff disputes with the United States.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has argued that Canada needs to diversify its economic relationships after decades of increasing integration with the United States. His appearance before the European Parliament followed European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s proposal that Canada could become the EU’s first associated member. The proposed relationship remains subject to further definition, but the discussions demonstrate Canada’s interest in expanding commercial and institutional links with Europe. For the EU, closer relations with Canada could further develop an existing transatlantic trading relationship while providing additional opportunities for investment and market access.
The dispute illustrates how geopolitical considerations are increasingly influencing trade policy. Canada and the United States have already imposed substantial tariffs on one another, affecting sectors including steel and aluminium. Further restrictions would have implications for businesses operating across North American and European supply chains. At the same time, Canada’s efforts to diversify its trading relationships demonstrate how governments are responding to uncertainty by seeking additional markets and partners. The episode therefore reflects a wider trend towards trade diversification and regionalisation, in which companies and governments are attempting to reduce dependence on individual markets while navigating increasingly interconnected trade and geopolitical policies.
THE PORT OF MALAGA EXPANDS ITS ROLE IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE (21/09/2026)
The Port of Málaga experienced a significant expansion in international trade activity during 2025, handling 5.6 million tonnes of goods, 24.3% more than in 2024 and the highest annual volume recorded in the 21st century. The increase was particularly concentrated in containerised and general cargo, which grew by 76.3% and 215% respectively. Export traffic reached approximately 3.8 million tonnes, representing around 68% of total port traffic and highlighting the growing importance of Málaga as a platform for international distribution.
The port’s trade relations demonstrate considerable geographical diversification. The United States represented the largest individual trading relationship in the country-level data, with 650,139 tonnes, although imports exceeded exports. Brazil followed with 600,408 tonnes, with almost all of this volume consisting of goods unloaded in Málaga. By contrast, India recorded a predominantly export-oriented relationship, with 270,295 tonnes shipped compared with only 32,910 tonnes unloaded. The United Kingdom and the United Arab Emirates also recorded substantially higher outbound than inbound volumes, while countries such as Canada, Turkey and Ukraine showed stronger import profiles. These differences illustrate the varied role of Málaga within international supply chains, depending on the type of goods and the structure of each bilateral trade relationship.
This growth is accompanied by an expansion of the port’s infrastructure and digital capacity. Investment in assets under construction increased from €3.75 million to €8.02 million, with projects including the development of Quays 8 and 9, increased electrical capacity and the implementation of the PCS + PMS digital management system. Environmental measures are also becoming increasingly integrated into port operations, including the electrification of the vehicle fleet and the development of shore-side electricity connections with a capacity of 25 MW. Málaga’s performance therefore reflects a broader transformation in maritime trade, combining increased cargo volumes with larger vessels, digitalisation, infrastructure investment and the gradual electrification of port operations.
The Port of Málaga expands its role in international trade – Port of Málaga annual accounts
THE WTO WARNS THAT TRADE FRAGMENTATION COULD REDUCE GDP BY ALMOST 7% (22/09/2026)
The World Trade Organization has warned of the potential economic consequences of a weakening multilateral trading system, estimating that replacing broad international cooperation with bilateral or regional trade arrangements could reduce global economic output significantly by 2050. Under one scenario in which multilateral cooperation is replaced by agreements between individual countries or groups, global GDP could be 6.9% lower, while global exports could decline by 26.9%. The figures form part of a set of scenarios designed to demonstrate the potential long-term effects of increasing trade fragmentation.
A second scenario considers a world divided into several geopolitical trading blocs. Under this model, global GDP could be 5.1% lower and international trade in goods and services could decline by 18.6%. By contrast, the WTO’s enhanced-cooperation scenario projects a 2.9% increase in global GDP and a 17.9% increase in export volumes. These figures are modelled scenarios rather than forecasts of a specific future outcome, but they illustrate the potential difference between a more integrated trading system and one increasingly organised around geopolitical divisions.
The WTO identifies tariffs, restrictions on specific goods, sanctions and limitations on foreign investment as measures that can increase uncertainty for international businesses. The organisation also highlights the growing use of national security and strategic autonomy arguments in areas such as digital trade, artificial intelligence, industrial policy and subsidies. As these issues increasingly overlap with trade policy, companies face a more complex regulatory environment and greater uncertainty regarding international supply chains. The report therefore places the future of global trade within a broader debate over how governments can address security and strategic concerns while maintaining predictable international economic relations.
The WTO warns that trade fragmentation could reduce global GDP by almost 7% – NoticiasTrabajo / WTO
*******************************************
In Madrid, 30 September 2026
InternationalTrade and Sanctions Department
Lupicinio International Law Firm
