EU SEEKS FREE TRADE DEAL WITH INDIA AS TRADE WAR WITH US LOOMS (01.03.2025)
On 1 March 2025, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen travelled to New Delhi to advance negotiations towards an EU-India trade agreement. Aiming to conclude it later this year, the push comes in the face of a growing risk of a trade war with the United States due to ongoing economic and trade tensions between the two blocs. The EU seeks to diversify its trade alliances and reduce economic dependence on the US and China. By 2023, India had already become the EU’s third largest trading partner, with trade reaching 184 billion euros, underlining the strategic and economic importance this agreement could have for Europe. Both sides have expressed their political will to overcome outstanding obstacles in areas such as agriculture, intellectual property and services, in a joint effort to consolidate a lasting economic relationship.
UNITED STATES IMPOSES 25% TARIFFS ON IMPORTS FROM MEXICO AND CANADA (04.03.2025)
On 4 March 2025, the United States imposed tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada and China after negotiations between Washington and the trading partners failed to reach a successful conclusion. The measures affect key products, especially in the steel, aluminium and automotive sectors. This decision increases international trade tensions and opens the door to an escalation of retaliation by the affected countries. Moreover, the US government has warned that Europe will be the next target of its tariff policy. Faced with this announcement, the European Union has begun to prepare a possible response to defend its trade interests.
https://www.bbc.com/mundo/articles/cjd3zmdlkv0o
EU RESPONDS TO TRUMP’S STEEL AND ALUMINIUM TARIFFS WITH RETALIATORY MEASURES WORTH 26 BILLION EUROS (12.03.2025)
In response to the tariffs imposed by the US on European steel and aluminium, the European Union has implemented countermeasures worth 26 billion euros. This reaction, effective from 12 March 2025, follows the entry into force of the measures adopted by Donald Trump’s administration, which significantly affect European exports in these strategic sectors. The European Commission has announced that these new tariffs will affect US products such as motorbikes, bourbon, jeans and corn, among others. Moreover, the EU authorities have stated that the measures are proportionate and in line with World Trade Organisation (“WTO”) rules, stressing their willingness to reverse them if the United States withdraws its restrictions.
GLOBAL TRADE STARTED 2025 WITH STABILITY, SAYS UNCTAD (14.03.2025)
According to the update report of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (“UNCTAD”), world trade started 2025 with a stable performance, having reached a record value of USD 32.9 trillion in 2024. The report highlights that, while overall figures remain high, growth has moderated compared to previous years due to geopolitical tensions and increasing economic fragmentation.
UNCTAD notes that trade in goods showed a slight contraction of 1% during the last quarter of 2024, while trade in services grew by 7%, partially offsetting the decline. Furthermore, the report warns that the outlook for 2025 is uncertain, mainly due to trade tensions and fragmentation of global supply chains. However, it acknowledges that some sectors, such as services and exports from certain developing countries, show signs of resilience.
https://unctad.org/es/publication/actualizacion-sobre-el-comercio-global-marzo-de-2025?
WORLD TRADE TO REACH A RECORD $33 TRILLION IN 2024, DRIVEN BY SERVICES AND DEVELOPING ECONOMIES (14.03.2025)
According to UNCTAD, world trade reached a record $33 trillion in 2024, driven mainly by growth in services and exports from developing economies. Global trade grew by 3.7 per cent, led by a 9 per cent increase in services and a 2 per cent rise in goods, although momentum weakened in the second half of the year.
Most regions recorded positive growth, except Europe and Central Asia. Sectors such as agri-food, communication technology and transport increased their trade volumes, while energy, fashion and extractive industries showed declines due to lower demand and regulatory changes.
Developing economies outperformed advanced economies, with imports and exports growing by 4%, led by East and South Asia. Trade between countries in the Global South grew by 5%. In contrast, advanced economies’ trade remained virtually stagnant.
In 2024, trade imbalances returned to levels similar to those in 2022, with the US trade deficit widening against China and the EU, while China achieved its largest surplus since 2022 and the EU closed the year with a surplus.
The report warns that while trade has been stable in the first months of 2025, the outlook is marked by uncertainty due to geopolitical tensions, protectionist policies and the risk of global trade fragmentation.
THE OECD POINTS TO SPAIN AS THE ADVANCED ECONOMY THAT WILL GROW THE MOST THIS YEAR AND THE ONE THAT WILL SUFFER THE LEAST FROM THE TARIFF WAR (17.03.2025)
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has identified Spain as the advanced economy that will grow the most in 2025 and the one that will suffer the least from the effects of the international tariff war. According to the report presented, Spain will lead growth among the main developed economies with a forecast of 1.8%, surpassing countries such as the United States, Germany, France and Italy.
The OECD stresses that, despite the global slowdown and the negative impact of trade tensions generated by the imposition of tariffs, Spain will be relatively less affected due to its export diversification and the strength of its domestic market. Moreover, the organisation considers that the country has one of the most moderate inflation rates and a better labour market performance than its European partners. However, it warns that the risks associated with international uncertainty are still present and could affect the economy if the trade situation worsens.
US WHOLESALE EGG PRICES SHOW A DECREASE, ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT YET REFLECTED IN THE COST TO THE FINAL CONSUMER. (20.03.2025)
The wholesale price of eggs in the United States has fallen significantly since the beginning of March, after several months of increases. The national average price for a dozen large white eggs fell to just over $4, however, at the end of February the price was about $8, according to US Department of Agriculture data.
However, this drop is not yet reflected in consumer prices, because eggs have a shelf life of up to four weeks and many shops still sell inventory purchased at earlier prices. In addition, economists point out that factors such as the partial recovery of supply, lower demand and the containment of avian influenza have contributed to the price decline. However, they caution that the situation remains uncertain and that a new outbreak could reverse the trend.
The impact on consumers could vary regionally, as in areas with more competition between supermarkets, prices could fall faster than in those controlled by a few chains. In addition, the proximity of Easter could keep prices high in the short term due to the seasonal increase in demand.
The sector continues to be affected by the consequences of avian influenza, which has resulted in the loss of millions of hens in recent months. In addition, the US Department of Justice has launched an antitrust investigation to determine whether there were improper price coordination practices among large egg producers.
https://www.nytimes.com/es/2025/03/20/espanol/negocios/precio-huevos.html
ARGENTINE MARKETS REACT POSITIVELY TO IMF NEGOTIATIONS (27.03.2025)
Argentina’s financial markets reacted positively to the announcement that the government is negotiating with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a new $20 billion loan. Economy Minister Luis Caputo confirmed the negotiations amid exchange rate pressures and domestic tensions. Following the announcement, the country risk index fell nine units to 759 basis points, and the Buenos Aires stock market rose as much as 2.5 per cent at the open.
Economist Christian Buteler pointed out that, although there is still no closed deal, the communication sought to calm tensions due to the fall in reserves of the Central Bank, which sold more than 1.3 billion dollars in recent sessions. At the same time, the Argentine peso experienced a slight devaluation, with a fall controlled by the Central Bank through its “crawling peg” policy. The situation develops in a context of expectations for the eventual end of exchange restrictions and political uncertainty.
https://www.reuters.com/latam/negocio/SNA33P5ZSZPD5IM2IAIEGGVMBY-2025-03-27/?
MOROCCO DENOUNCES EMBARGO ON FRESH PRODUCE IN EUROPEAN SUPERMARKETS (27.03.2025)
On 27 March 2025, Morocco expressed concern over the blocking of its fresh produce in European supermarkets, saying that an organised campaign seeks to harm Moroccan producers, especially in Dakhla, Western Sahara. Following an EU Court of Justice ruling that annulled agriculture and fisheries trade agreements between the EU and Morocco, French activists have blocked shipments and organised demonstrations against products from the Moroccan Sahara. Moroccan farmers denounce sabotage and threats directed at importers and consumers, lamenting the politicisation of the import of their products. Morocco strongly defends made in Morocco labelling and warns that these actions, which exploit its national and territorial unity, jeopardise its economy.
GLENCORE ANNOUNCES 50% CUT IN PRODUCTION AT LATIN AMERICA’S LARGEST COAL MINE (27.03.2025)
On 27 March 2025, Glencore, the Swiss multinational and main operator of El Cerrejón Latin America’s largest coal mine – announced a 50% cut in production. The company has reported that the move is a consequence of the prolonged fall in international thermal coal prices, which currently do not allow the operation to be financially sustainable. This means that annual production will fall from 24 million tonnes to approximately 12 million tonnes.
Glencore’s statement says the decision seeks to ensure the viability of the mine in an adverse economic context, although it recognises that the situation is delicate and does not rule out further adjustments if prices continue to fall. In addition, the company has guaranteed that it will maintain its contractual and export commitments despite the reduction. This measure has important implications both for the local economy, as El Cerrejón is one of the main economic engines of La Guajira, and for international trade, given Colombia’s weight as a coal exporter.
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In Madrid, 31 March 2025
International Trade and Sanctions Department
