President Donald J. Trump has imposed tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China (01.02.2025)
The US president has imposed tariffs on goods imported from China, Canada and Mexico as an emergency measure under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to address the country’s opioid crisis. Tariffs on goods imported from Canada and Mexico have been increased by 25 per cent, although energy resources imported from Canada will be subject to only a 10 per cent tariff; goods imported from China will be subject to a 10 per cent tariff. The president has blamed these countries for neglecting their international commitments to curb illegal immigration and drug trafficking.
2025 global trade outlook: industry insights (12.02.2025)
The International Chamber of Commerce has published a report analysing trends in international trade, in particular the impact of increased market access barrier measures. The post-pandemic circumstances of 2019 are characterised by higher interest rates, stubborn inflation, unprecedented levels of debt and geo-economic fragmentation; the coupling measures of companies have undermined their bottom line, the rise of protectionist measures is testing their resilience. World trade now tends to re-import production and diversify supply lines.
Emerging markets under the ‘America First’ trade policy (13.02.2025)
Donald Trump’s new administration has brought with it ambitious and confrontational policies and the use of discretionary tariffs; the resulting environment is one of growing uncertainty that may be a drag on economic growth. The first weeks of the new administration have shown a new enthusiasm for creating more ambitious policies, but the density of executive orders and the use of emergency powers have made policy difficult to predict. Moreover, the discretionary use of tariffs as foreign policy, including on allies such as Mexico and Canada, is an assertive but risky stance to pursue the country’s trade aims, such as marginalising China in trade with Latin America. These measures have affected emerging markets, most notably tariffs on semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, steel and aluminium.
WTO General Council stresses need to deepen discussions on reform of the organisation (19.02.2025)
https://www.wto.org/spanish/news_s/news25_s/gc_19feb25_s.htm
At its meeting on 18-19 February, the WTO General Council highlighted the need to deepen discussions on reform of the organisation, particularly in the way it operates in light of current challenges, such as economic uncertainty, geopolitical changes and recent advances in technology. Since 2022 there has been an impetus for reform and a recognition of the need for fundamental changes, not only in the organisation’s practices, but even in its values and principles. This renewal has taken prominence around the WTO’s thirtieth anniversary, which has fostered a common understanding of the speed and depth with which this change must occur.
President Donald J. Trump encourages foreign investment while protecting national security (21.02.2025)
The US president has signed the Presidential Memorandum on National Security, aimed at promoting foreign investment in the United States without omitting national security interests, particularly vis-à-vis China. The US will create a fast-track procedure to facilitate greater investment from specific allies, albeit with conditions to prevent partnerships with foreign adversaries depending on the sector. Chinese investment will also be restricted in sectors such as technology, strategic infrastructure, health, agriculture, and commodity extraction. Further, administrative processing to facilitate investment will be preferred over “mitigation” agreements with foreign trade adversaries. However, the government will continue to support passive investment to allow US companies to continue to enjoy foreign capital.
Nations compete to retain young skilled workers (24.02.2025)
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj30xr1vy2lo
In Portugal, high taxes and uncompetitive salaries compared to the European market are causing a massive brain drain. In 2020 the Portuguese government launched a programme to reduce taxes for employees under the age of 30 and scale it according to the level of education. Although, in 2022, 73’684 citizens benefited from this policy according to official sources, and the new government has expanded the programme to include all workers under 35 regardless of their level of education, experts have ruled that it will not be enough to prevent the brain drain; even with these policies, Portugal takes a larger share of the wage bill than more prosperous nations.
DBS, the big Asian bank cuts 4,000 employees to replace them with AI (25.02.2025)
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g7xn9y64po
Singapore’s largest bank, DBS, says it will cut its workforce by almost 4,000 jobs over the next three years due to an increase in tasks performed by artificial intelligences. The bank has around 41,000 employees, including almost 9,000 temporary jobs. The bank expects to achieve this reduction organically, by replacing positions from projects that are being completed, and from temporary and interim workers, but permanent staff will not be affected. In addition, about 1000 jobs are expected to be created to achieve the transition and maintain the A.I. systems.
Tesla shares stagnate after European sales slump (26.02.2025)
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgd9v3r69qo
Tesla shares have fallen by more than 9 points after sales fell by almost half in the European Union and the UK in January, despite electric vehicle sales rising by more than a third in these markets. The European market has diversified with the entry of Chinese competitors, such as BYD. In addition, owner Elon Musk’s political intervention has caused controversy on both sides of the Atlantic and earned the company detractors. Musk’s political affiliations could put him at odds with his interests in Tesla.
BP moves away from renewable energy back to oil and natural gas (26.02.2025)
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3374ekd11po
The oil company had been enthusiastic on investing in renewable energy as part of its commitment to the environment, but BP has announced that it will now focus more on increasing oil and natural gas production than on investing in green energy. The company will increase its investment in fossil fuels by 20%, about ten billion dollars, but decrease its investment in renewable energy by more than five billion. The company’s management has claimed that its green transition had been sudden and too drastic, and its faith in renewable energy was incautious. The company has not abandoned its ideal of becoming carbon-neutral; with this decision it only wants to ensure its financial sustainability vis-à-vis its shareholders.
What we know about the US-Ukraine mineral agreement (26.02.2025)
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn527pz54neo
Ukraine has accepted a preliminary proposal that would allow it access to its rare earth deposits for US companies. This preliminary agreement has not yet been published, but official sources have confirmed that it involves the creation of a Ukrainian reconstruction fund to be administered by both countries on equal terms. In addition, Ukraine will contribute half of its revenues from mineral exploitation to the fund. However, the agreement does not appear to include concrete guarantees for Ukraine’s national security, but President Donald Trump has said that this agreement will give Ukraine the right to fight on. The president has also asserted that the deal will help taxpayers offset the military aid the US has given to Ukraine, almost $119 billion.
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In Madrid, 28 February 2025
Trade and International Sanctions Department
