THE NEW INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES (17.06.2025)
After two days of negotiations in London, the United States and China agreed to reactivate the previously agreed trade truce, although the agreement still requires formal approval. President Trump declared it a done deal and stressed that he is seeking to ease tensions following the decline in bilateral trade and increased global economic uncertainty.
As part of the deal, the US will raise tariffs on Chinese products from 30% to 55%, while China will keep its tariffs at 10%. In exchange, it will guarantee the supply of rare earth minerals and strategic magnets, and the US will allow Chinese students to enter the country, following previous threats of restrictions.
Despite the agreement, trade continues to fall: in May, US imports from China fell by 28.5%, and the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles recorded declines of more than 30%.
The World Bank has lowered its global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.3%, citing trade uncertainty as a key risk. Although the deal averts an immediate escalation, experts warn that high tariffs will remain in place and structural tensions will persist. Ultimately, this is a temporary truce that does not resolve the underlying conflict.
THE U.S. SEEKS TO REDUCE ITS DEPENDENCE ON CHINA FOR RARE EARTHS (17.06.2025)
Between the 1950s and 1980s, the United States led the world in the production of rare earth minerals, which are now essential in sectors such as defence, clean energy, and automotive manufacturing. However, China currently controls 96% of the world’s supply of certain minerals and has restricted its exports in retaliation for the tariffs imposed by Trump. The US is particularly dependent on elements such as dysprosium and terbium, which are key to manufacturing permanent magnets used in electric motors, missiles, and vehicles.
The only active rare earth mine in the US, Mountain Pass, does not produce these heat-resistant minerals, forcing the country to seek alternative suppliers in countries such as Australia, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia. Companies such as Lynas and NioCorp, backed by the Department of Defense, are developing projects, although they face serious technical, environmental, and financial challenges.
China not only dominates extraction but also refining technologies and the fixation of international pricing, reinforcing its strategic advantage. Faced with this situation, the US and its allies are discussing measures such as subsidies, tariffs, and government procurement to reduce dependence.
The real challenge is to build a complete, efficient, and sustainable supply chain capable of competing with China, which has shown itself willing to take losses to maintain control over this strategic resource.
https://time.com/7294964/us-rare-earths-minerals-china-dominance-trump-tariffs/
CHINESE TECHNOLOGY GIANT HAVE BIG AMBITIONS IN BRAZIL (20.06.2025)
Faced with a saturated domestic market and growing restrictions in the US and Europe, China’s leading technology and e-commerce companies are looking to expand into new markets, with Brazil being the most attractive destination. With over 200 million inhabitants, it represents a key opportunity to apply low-cost business models. Companies such as Meituan, Mixue, and TikTok Shop have already announced million-dollar investments and massive hiring in the country.
Bilateral trade between China and Brazil has doubled in the last decade, accompanied by growing strategic cooperation. However, aggressive strategies by Chinese companies—such as operating at a loss to gain higher margins—could create regulatory tensions. Firms such as Shein, Didi, and Temu are already facing new import taxes.
The economic slowdown in China and internal regulatory pressure, especially in areas such as labor and data protection, are driving this commitment to internationalization as a way to sustain growth. For Chinese companies, Brazil offers scale, demand, and openness, but it also poses regulatory and competitive challenges. This move reflects a broader trend of global repositioning, with Chinese technology companies seeking to consolidate their position in emerging economies in the face of growing barriers in Western markets.
US AND SOUTH KOREAN TRADE MINISTERS REAFFIRM THEIR COMMITMENT TO REACHING AN AGREEMENT ON TARIFFS (23.06.2025)
The trade ministers of the United States and South Korea reaffirmed their commitment to move forward as quickly as possible towards an agreement on tariffs, according to the South Korean Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy. At a meeting held on Monday, South Korea’s chief negotiator, Yeo Han-koo, reiterated his request for exemptions from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs imposed by the former President Donald Trump, as well as charges on key products such as automobiles and steel.
The meeting was attended by US Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. Both sides stressed the need to strengthen the bilateral economic cooperation and address the trade barriers affecting strategic sectors for both economies.
In addition, the acting US ambassador to South Korea, Joseph Yun, indicated during a seminar that new negotiations on the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between the two countries could be opened. This possibility was reported by the local media outlet Money Today, highlighting the mutual interest in reviewing and modernising the current framework.
The conversations reflect an effort to ease trade tensions that have built up in recent years and improve conditions for bilateral trade. Cooperation on tariffs could be key to revitalising the economic relationship in a global context of growing protectionism.
OIL PRICES HIT ITS FIVE-MONTH HIGH AFTER US ATTACKS ON IRANIAN NUCLEAR FACILITIES (23.06.2025)
Oil prices reached their highest level in five months following US attacks on nuclear facilities in Iran. Brent’s oil rose to $81.40 per barrel, driven by growing tensions in the Middle East and fears of disruptions to global energy supplies.
In response to the attacks, the Iranian Parliament symbolically approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic route through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil passes. Although there has not yet been any actual disruption to traffic, the threat has been enough to trigger nervousness in international markets and cause a significant rise in prices.
Since the conflict began on June 13, the price of Brent’s oil has risen by around 13%, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI), another type of crude oil used as a benchmark for setting oil prices, has increased by 10%. Analysts warn that if the situation worsens and the strait is blocked, oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel, with serious consequences for the global economy.
For now, supplies remain normal, but high geopolitical uncertainty is keeping markets on alert. The situation remains volatile, and any new episode of confrontation could cause a further shock to global crude oil prices.
THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF THE STRAIT OF ORMUZ AND WHY THE US ASKED CHINA TO PREVENT IRAN FROM CLOSING IT (23.06.2025)
The Strait of Hormuz is a key shipping route connecting the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean and through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil passes. Its strategic importance makes it a critical point for the stability of global energy trade. Iran has repeatedly threatened to close this passage in response to sanctions or military action, raising international concerns about the potential impact on oil prices and the global economy.
Although Iran has the military capability to disrupt maritime traffic, a total closure of the strait would be difficult to sustain due to the likely response of the United States and its allies, who have reinforced their military presence in the region to ensure freedom of navigation. Furthermore, such a measure would harm Iran’s own economy, as its oil exports also depend on this route.
The article concludes that, although the threat of closure is enough to disrupt markets, its implementation would entail high risks for Iran and negative consequences at a global level. The Strait of Hormuz remains a sensitive geopolitical point, whose stability is essential to avoid disruptions in global energy supplies. Any attempt at blockade would have serious and destabilizing economic effects for all parties involved.
https://www.bbc.com/mundo/articles/crk60k3x1l6o
THE CONFLICT BETWEEN ISRAEL AND IRAN CAUSES MAJOR FLIGHT DISRUPTIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST (24.06.2025)
The conflict between Israel and Iran, which intensified in June 2025 with the military intervention of the United States, has caused serious disruptions to air traffic in the Middle East. Following Israeli attacks and Iran’s response with missiles and drones, key airports in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Israel suffered closures, delays, and massive cancellations.
On June 24, Iran attacked a US base in Qatar, leading to the temporary suspension of Qatari airspace and the grounding of Qatar Airways flights. Airlines such as Emirates, Air India, Japan Airlines, and Qatar Airways itself suspended routes to Iran, Iraq, and other affected destinations, leaving thousands of passengers stranded, especially in the hubs of Dubai and Doha.
Although a ceasefire was declared that same day, mediated by the US, and some airspace began to reopen, many airlines remain cautious and continue to operate alternative routes or cancel flights. Israeli airline El Al has set up special flights to repatriate citizens, while Ben Gurion Airport is gradually resuming its operations.
In summary, the conflict has caused significant disruption to aviation in the region. Although the situation is improving following the ceasefire, uncertainty remains, and airlines are continuing to assess the risks before resuming their usual operations.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx20kxdl3nlo
NIGERIA AND BRAZIL SIGN A $1 BILLION AGREEMENT TO TRANSFORM AGRICULTURE, ENERGY, AND DEFENCE (24.06.2025)
Nigeria is moving decisively towards a structural transformation of its economy. During the recent visit of Brazilian Vice President Geraldo Alckmin to Abuja, the two countries signed cooperation agreements in strategic sectors. Nigerian Vice President Kashim Shettima stressed that the country is moving away from subsistence agriculture based on family farms to promote large-scale agricultural production that will reduce food dependence on other countries.
At the same time, reforms are being implemented in the energy sector with the aim of attracting investment in gas, refining, and renewable energies. These measures are part of President Bola Tinubu’s ambitious plan to modernize the economy and position Nigeria as one of the leading emerging powers.
With over 200 million inhabitants and growing demand for food and energy, Nigeria has set itself the target of achieving a GDP of one trillion dollars by 2030. To this end, it has asked its banks to recapitalize, thereby strengthening the financial system and encouraging foreign direct investment.
The reforms also cover areas such as education and public finance management, consolidating a comprehensive and sustained development agenda. This multisectoral approach reflects the country’s commitment to inclusive, competitive growth that is aligned with the global challenges of the 21st century.
DONALD TRUMP THREATENED TRADE RETALIATION AGAINST SPAIN FOR REFUSING TO INCREASE ITS DEFENCE SPENDING TO 5% OF ITS GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) (25.06.2025)
During the recent NATO summit in The Hague, Donald Trump harshly criticized Spain for not committing to reaching 5% of GDP in military spending by 2035, a target agreed upon by the 32 member countries. Although the President Pedro Sánchez signed the joint declaration, he clarified that Spain will only allocate 2.1%, technically backed by the Atlantic Alliance.
Trump responded with threats of trade retaliation, stating that Spain ‘will pay double’ and that he will negotiate directly with the country to demand compensation. This stance created tension, as European trade agreements are not established bilaterally, but through the European Commission.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reaffirmed that there will be no exceptions to the target: a basic 3.5% plus an additional 1.5%. The international press highlighted Sánchez’s isolation from other leaders during the summit. Trump described the Spanish position as “unfair” and said the agreement would be remembered as the ‘The Hague Defence Commitment’, taking credit for the initiative that has driven the global increase in military spending since 2017.
This episode highlights internal tensions within the Alliance over burden sharing, in a geopolitical context where pressure to strengthen collective defence continues to mount.
https://www.bbc.com/mundo/articles/cz6g13dyxjxo
BRUSSELS WILL ALLOW COUNTRIES TO HELP ELECTRICITY-INTENSIVE COMPANIES WHICH ARE MOST EXPOSED TO THE INTERNATIONAL MARKET (26.06.2025)
The European Commission has approved new state aid rules, valid until 2030, to strengthen industrial competitiveness and accelerate the transition to a decarbonized economy. These rules allow governments to grant subsidies to companies that are highly exposed to international trade and heavily dependent on electricity, provided they commit to investing in their decarbonization. The measure seeks to balance European environmental requirements against global competitors with less strict regulations.
The new framework establishes a ’fast track’ for approving aid to sectors that are difficult to decarbonize, such as blue and green hydrogen, which are essential for reducing emissions. It also provides for specific support for projects in disadvantaged regions, within the framework of the Clean Industry Pact promoted by Ursula von der Leyen.
This regulation is a response to the green protectionism adopted by the United States and aims to encourage private investment in key sectors through tools such as loans, capital injections, and public guarantees. The goal is to strengthen a sustainable, modern, and competitive European industry without violating single market rules.
With this measure, the Commission seeks to attract more investment in clean technologies, consolidate European industrial autonomy, and position the continent as a leader in green innovation against global competition.
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In Madrid, 30 June 2025
International Trade and Sanctiones Department
