BRUSSELS COMMITS TO JOINT PURCHASES AND STORAGE OF CRITICAL RAW MATERIALS TO AVOID DEPENDENCE ON CHINA (03.12.2025)
The European Commission has launched a plan to secure the supply of critical raw materials and reduce the vulnerability of European industry to dependence on China, especially for elements such as rare earths, whose availability has become more uncertain due to export controls and restrictions. Brussels frames the initiative as an economic security response; if these supplies fail, strategic value chains such as automotive, defence, aerospace, AI-related chips and data centres will suffer.
The operational focus is on buying and storing better. On the one hand, the Commission proposes joint purchases (as it was done with Covid-19 vaccines or with energy and defence mechanisms) to gain negotiating power, secure volumes and improve conditions with global suppliers. On the other hand, it proposes coordinated storage at EU level to enable supplies to be distributed and prioritised in the event of shortages, according to the most urgent industrial needs. The plan also envisages the creation of a platform for companies to pool demand and participate in joint purchasing, and a European Raw Materials Centre to coordinate the system, with a view to it being up and running by 2026, in addition to a storage pilot also planned for 2026.
The European Commission stresses that this is not just a matter of ‘buying and storing’, but of accelerating specific industrial projects to gain autonomy. Brussels is talking about redirecting at least €3 billion in European funds in the coming months to unlock initiatives, focusing on areas considered high risk and high impact such as permanent magnets, batteries and defence, because they are key components in electrification, renewables and sensitive industrial capabilities.
CHINA IMPOSES TARIFFS OF UP TO 19.8% ON EUROPEAN PORK IN RETALIATION FOR EU TAXES ON ELECTRIC CARS, BUT EXCLUDES IBERIAN HAM (16.12.2025)
China announced the definitive imposition of anti-dumping tariffs on imports of pork and pork products from the European Union, with rates reaching up to 19.8%, although the impact is less than feared because the provisional tariffs proposed in September reached 62.4%.
The measure, presented as retaliation in the trade dispute with Brussels over European tariffs on Chinese electric cars, comes into force the day after the announcement and will apply for five years. According to the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, the investigation concludes that there was ‘dumping’ by European exporters, selling below cost to gain market share, and that this caused significant damage to the domestic industry, establishing a causal link between these practices and the difficulties faced by the sector in China. Despite the blow, Spain can breathe a sigh of relief because the final threat was better than expected and, above all, because Iberian ham is excluded from the case and is not affected.
In practice, the tariffs will be modulated according to the degree of cooperation of the companies: Litera Meat, taken as a reference in the investigation, will be subject to 4.9%; the companies that cooperated, including several Spanish companies such as El Pozo and Campofrío, will face 9.8%; and the maximum of 19.8% is reserved for companies that did not cooperate and for the Dutch company Vion. In addition, these new duties are added to the 12% that already existed, so that the total increase for some products will be higher than what was paid before.
The surcharge does apply to a wide range of goods (fresh, chilled and frozen meat; offal; unrefined fat and lard; and intestines, bladders and stomachs, among others), which is a cause for concern because Spain is the largest European exporter of pork to China and that market accounted for around 20% of its exports in 2024, worth over €1 billion. Even so, the sector views the outcome positively due to the reduction compared to the provisional figures and attributes part of the result to negotiations with the Chinese authorities, reinforced by recent institutional visits. Interporc maintains that Spain ‘benefits’ because the level applied to its companies keeps it competitive with other rivals in the Chinese market.
MOVING GOODS AROUND THE WORLD WILL SOON BE CHEAPER, FASTER AND MORE FLEXIBLE THANKS TO THE UN (17.12.2025)
The UN has approved a new convention aimed at modernising the documentation accompanying the international transport of goods. The aim is to reduce costs and times in commercial operations and better adapt them to how cargo is moved today, which often combines several means of transport (ship, train, lorry or aeroplane). The central change is the creation of a single, fully electronic and negotiable document, designed to function consistently in multimodal transport.
The practical key to this negotiable document is that it allows goods to be managed while en route: they can be sold, redirected or used as collateral to obtain financing during the journey, without relying on physical paperwork or fragmented frameworks depending on the mode of transport. This flexibility has long existed, especially in maritime transport, where long voyages make it easier for cargo to be resold before reaching its destination, but it is much more limited when shipments combine road, rail or air transport.
According to the UN, harmonising rules and using a single digital medium can also reduce disputes over who is the legitimate owner of the cargo at any given time and thus reduce legal risks. At the same time, it would make banks and other financiers feel more secure in supporting commercial operations, which is particularly relevant for developing countries and landlocked states, which are heavily dependent on complex logistics chains. The General Assembly endorsed the convention on 15 December 2025, with a signing ceremony planned for 2026 in Accra, Ghana, and the treaty will enter into force when ten countries ratify it.
https://news.un.org/es/story/2025/12/1540926
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES A NEAR FUTURE FULL OF UNCERTAINTIES AND TENSIONS (19.12.2025)
Although the global economy was more resilient than expected in 2025, it is entering a phase of structural turbulence: shifting tariff wars, shortages of critical minerals and US-China rivalry are overlapping with transformations in technology (AI), demographics and climate, reshaping employment, politics and everyday life. In the United States, economic policy is erratic, tariffs are imposed and withdrawn, public debt is around 125% of GDP, and the AI-driven stock market boom coexists with fears of a correction. Europe, for its part, is growing less than other advanced economies, lagging behind in AI investment, struggling to deepen the single market and close deals (such as Mercosur), and its industry is suffering from expensive energy and pressure from cheap Chinese imports diverted from the US. Voices such as Daron Acemoglu warn of a ‘uniquely turbulent moment’ and a European innovation deficit.
Even with its real estate crisis, China is increasing its influence: in 2025, it will record a record trade surplus and redirect exports to Europe and Southeast Asia; in AI, it competes head-to-head with the US (partly due to its large pool of engineers). Economists such as Dani Rodrik are calling on the West to adopt more differentiated strategies, to focus on the next generation of technology rather than replicating China, while the debate over unbearable imbalances grows (Macron). Without clear hegemony, bilateral agreements and rules of origin proliferate, making compliance more expensive and the system more complex (Obstfeld); poorly understood bottlenecks persist in global supply chains (Coyle), and political currents, elections, populism and disinformation add volatility.
The global economy faces a near future full of uncertainty and tension – The New York Times
CHINA IMPOSES PROVISIONAL TARIFFS OF UP TO 42.7% ON EU DAIRY PRODUCTS (22.12.2025)
China announced that it will impose provisional tariffs of up to 42.7% on certain dairy products imported from the European Union, a measure that will take effect on 30 December 2025. These levies come after Beijing closed the first phase of an ‘anti-subsidy’ investigation into European dairy products and, according to the news report, are widely interpreted as retaliation for EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.
The tariff rates will range from 21.9% to 42.7%, although the article indicates that most companies would pay around 30%, and will target products such as milk and cheese, including brands with protected designation of origin (Roquefort and Gorgonzola are cited, for example).
The European Commission responded by attacking the decision as ‘unjustified and unjustifiable’, stating that it is examining it and will forward its comments to the Chinese authorities; it also maintains that the investigation is based on questionable allegations and insufficient evidence. China’s determination is provisional and could be revised when the final ruling is issued. As in the case of pork, China reduced provisional tariffs in its final decision.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/dec/22/china-hits-eu-dairy-industry-with-tariffs?
CHINA AND THE EU EASE TENSIONS IN THE ELECTRIC CAR DISPUTE (12.01.2026)
Brussels has published a guide to price commitments for Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers to submit individual or collective offers, allowing anti-subsidy tariffs to be replaced by minimum prices and other verifiable commitments. The Commission details what the proposal must include (promises on prices, sales channels, import volumes and even investments in the EU) and sets the bar; the offer must eliminate the harmful effects of subsidies, be viable, avoid cross-compensation and comply with general policy criteria. The assessment may take more than a year, and the Commission says it will act objectively, without discrimination and in accordance with WTO rules.
Brussels would set the ‘minimum price’ by referring to the CIF price of the product during the period investigated plus the relevant tariff margin, or to the price of a comparable non-subsidised EV sold in the EU, adjusted for technical differences. In addition, investment commitments by Chinese manufacturers in EV-related industries within the EU will be viewed positively, provided they are clearly defined and verifiable. At the same time, the article recalls that Volkswagen already sent a commitment offer for models manufactured in China in December (before the guidance was released), and sees this as a practical mechanism for reducing tension without giving up protection against state aid.
The context is the trade war that has been ongoing since 2024, when the Commission imposed definitive duties of 7.8% to 35.3% on EVs imported from China following its anti-subsidy investigation; Beijing responded with tariffs on European sectors such as pork and brandy. Now, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce welcomes the guidance as the result of dialogue and a step towards a gradual and controlled solution. Brussels is trying to reduce dependencies without breaking trade ties with its largest supplier, at a time when the EU’s trade deficit with China exceeded €300 billion in 2024 and is set to widen due to the diversion of Chinese exports in the face of the dispute with the US.
GEOPOLITICS AND PROTECTIONISM WEIGH ON INTERNATIONAL TRADE, ALTHOUGH IT WILL CONTINUE TO GROW IN 2026 (15.01.2026)
The World Trade Update by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) indicates that global trade will enter 2026 with greater uncertainty and complexity due to a combination of slower economic growth, increased protectionism and structural changes in value chains, services and regulation. After a record year in 2025 (global trade grew by 7% and exceeded $35 trillion for the first time), UNCTAD forecasts that trade will continue to grow in 2026, but at a more moderate pace, in a scenario where global growth is estimated at around 2.6%, with a particularly marked slowdown in developing economies (excluding China).
One of the focuses of the news is the growing use of tariffs as a strategic tool linked to industrial and geopolitical objectives; this trend, which intensified in 2025, raises costs, adds uncertainty and affects small and undiversified economies the most. It also points to a ‘decisive moment’ for the multilateral system in the context of the upcoming WTO ministerial conference, with more unilateral restrictions and pressure on the rules. At the same time, it recalls that almost two-thirds of world trade takes place within global value chains, which are being reconfigured to prioritise risk management over pure cost efficiency, opening up opportunities for some developing countries but potentially marginalising those with weak infrastructure and regulatory frameworks.
UNCTAD also highlights two major trends: the rise of services (driven by digitalisation, but with significant digital divides: in developed countries, more than 60% of service exports are delivered digitally, compared to 16% in the least developed countries) and the growth of South-South trade, which now accounts for more than half of developing countries’ exports. It concludes by emphasising the growing importance of environmental commitments, the volatility of critical minerals, the vulnerability of agricultural trade and the tightening of regulations (which already affect around two-thirds of world trade), and calls for stronger international cooperation and more inclusive trade policies to enable developing countries to manage risks and seize opportunities in 2026.
https://news.un.org/es/story/2026/01/1541023
MERCOSUR COMMITS TO RATIFYING THE AGREEMENT WITH THE EU DESPITE THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT’S SLOWDOWN (22.01.2026)
Mercosur has decided to maintain momentum to ratify the trade agreement with the EU despite the European Parliament’s slowdown, which sent the text to the CJEU for review. The four capitals, Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, are confident that the pact will go ahead and are already moving forward with their internal procedures: Paraguay plans to take it to Congress immediately and Argentina to open the parliamentary debate in February; Brazil and Uruguay maintain their political support. The reading in the region is that the European setback is procedural, not terminal.
In Brussels, the European Commission is considering activating provisional application when at least one Mercosur country ratifies, a power provided for in the Treaties and used in previous agreements (such as the one with Canada). The idea would allow parts of the pact to begin to be implemented without waiting for the entire European process to be completed, but the European executive is putting the brakes on due to the political cost: the biggest obstacle today is the European Parliament, where support is tight and some groups and governments are asking for additional guarantees on sustainability and protection for sensitive sectors.
Meanwhile, several Member States, led by Germany, and large companies are pushing not to miss the geopolitical and economic window of opportunity: the agreement opens up a market of 450 million consumers to Mercosur and one of 300 million to the EU, with expectations of investment and more integrated supply chains. The President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and the President of the European Council, António Costa, are seeking to rebuild majorities in Parliament before taking the plunge; the aim is to avoid an institutional clash and, if ratification in the Southern Cone goes ahead, to have the necessary political cover to activate the provisional route and begin to implement the treaty in phases.
TRUMP THREATENS CANADA WITH 100% TARIFFS IF IT SIGNS A TRADE AGREEMENT WITH CHINA (24.01.2026)
Trump has threatened Canada with imposing 100% tariffs on all its exports to the US if Ottawa strengthens its trade ties with China. The warning comes after two gestures by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney: a trip to Beijing to finalise an agreement that eases tariffs on 50,000 Chinese electric cars and a speech in Davos in which he called on medium-sized countries to form alliances so as not to depend on the major powers.
Trump, who on social media referred to Carney as governor and once again raised the idea of making Canada the ‘51st state,’ accuses Ottawa of wanting to serve as a ‘gateway’ for Chinese products to the US market.
The backdrop is an already tense relationship: Washington imposed 35% tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminium, cars and wood in May, and added an additional 10% in October after a promotional video from Ontario angered the White House. Despite months of high-level talks, Canada remains the only G7 country without a trade agreement with the US. The 100% threat raises the risk of an immediate tariff escalation, with a direct impact on cross-border integrated sectors, automotive, metals and wood, and adds regulatory uncertainty for North American supply chains just as Ottawa explores a variable geometry policy that diversifies its dependence on the US towards Asia.
MEXICO’S STEEL SECTOR SAYS ITS EXPORTS TO THE US HAVE FALLEN BY 49% DUE TO TRUMP’S TARIFFS (27.01.2025)
The US tariff wall against steel and aluminium, reinstated at 25% in March and raised to 50% in June, hit the Mexican steel industry hard in 2025. Exports to its main market fell by 49% and the industry operated at less than 60% of its capacity. The employers’ association Canacero argues that the tax is unfounded because Mexico buys more steel from the US than it sells, and warns of an unprecedented crisis in the sector.
The deterioration of the domestic market aggravated the situation, with steel consumption in Mexico falling by 10% and imports gaining market share to 43%, with complaints of unfair competition due to subsidies from producers, especially Asian ones. At the same time, Washington has accused Mexico, without providing data, of serving as a gateway for Chinese steel to circumvent tariffs, a narrative that Mexican authorities and business leaders reject.
Despite the collapse of steel, Mexico closed 2025 with record total exports: $664.837 billion, 7.6% more than in 2024, thanks to the boost from machinery and electrical and electronic equipment. The contrast illustrates a sectoral decoupling: while some manufacturing complexes continued to be driven by nearshoring (the transfer of production processes or services to geographically close countries with lower costs), the steel industry was strangled by US tariff policy.
OLIVE OIL AND WINE PRODUCERS CELEBRATE AGREEMENT WITH INDIA: ‘IT’S A WORLD OF OPPORTUNITIES’ (28.01.2026)
The Spanish agricultural sector has generally welcomed the EU-India trade agreement signed in New Delhi with optimism, due to the enormous size of the potential market and because it comes at a time of uncertainty and tension over other agreements such as Mercosur. The immediate big winners would be olive oil and wine: the former, already well established in India, will see tariffs of up to 45% gradually eliminated over five years, which would make the product cheaper and could boost consumption; the latter will go from paying 150% tariffs to 20% in the premium range and 30% in the mid-range, which the sector sees as an opportunity to gain a foothold in a market that has been difficult to penetrate until now. The main agri-food flows between the two countries are also reviewed (Spain mainly exports oil, legumes and vegetable extracts, and imports molluscs, nuts and coffee, among other products, from India).
The other side is represented by Asaja, which calls for caution and warns of unfair competition if the agreement does not include safeguards and reciprocity in the requirements. It is particularly concerned about a massive influx of Indian rice that would drive down prices in Spanish producing areas and also warns of risks for tobacco, sweet corn and sugar. The organisation insists that products treated with plant protection products banned in the EU should not be allowed to enter and calls for automatic protection measures to prevent losses in profitability. In addition, the text adds that the European automotive industry also welcomes the agreement because it would facilitate exports to a large market that was highly protected (tariffs of up to 110%), although it acknowledges that there will be limits such as quotas and residual tariffs that will moderate the impact.
https://www.elmundo.es/economia/2026/01/28/6978f7c9fc6c8360238b456d.html
THE CHINESE SHOCK THAT THREATENS EUROPEAN INDUSTRY: SOME SOLUTIONS (28.01.2026)
The eurozone’s trade deficit with China has more than doubled since 2020, which cannot be explained solely by Chinese productivity. Two key factors are pointed out: a highly depreciated yuan against the euro and very low Chinese export prices, while Europe was coming off years of high inflation following the pandemic and the energy shock. As a result, it estimates that the real euro-yuan exchange rate has deteriorated by 35% since the end of the pandemic.
It also notes that, despite this gap with China, Europe has regained a surplus with the rest of the world, suggesting that the problem is highly concentrated in the bilateral relationship. Furthermore, it argues that the yuan should have appreciated much more due to China’s economic convergence and links this to a model that encourages overinvestment and overproduction, putting downward pressure on prices and complicating European competition.
As a proposal, he calls for combining competitiveness improvements with defence measures to buy time. He criticises the current EU instruments as slow and narrow, and proposes creating a new mechanism to monitor the real exchange rate by sector and allow sectoral tariffs to be applied when excessive real exchange rate weakness is detected. It acknowledges problems of compatibility with the WTO and possible retaliation, but argues that the cost of inaction could be greater.
EXPERTS WARN OF IRREVERSIBLE STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC ORDER (28.01.2026)
Oxford economist Adrian Cooper warns that the world is entering a period of permanent structural change in the economic order. On the one hand, there is the protectionist shift in the US (linked to the Donald Trump administration) and, on the other, the expansion of Chinese exports. According to Cooper, this represents a change in the ‘rules of the game’ on a scale not seen since the 1930s and calls into question the global trade framework that emerged after the Second World War, increasing geopolitical risks and the possibility of miscalculations between major powers.
In the London presentation of the ‘Global Outlook 2026’ report, Oxford Economics projects that global growth will remain relatively stable, at around 2.7% in 2026, albeit with threats such as geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation, and with particular vulnerability for less competitive regions such as Europe. Cooper stresses that this new scenario is unlikely to be reversed even with a successor to Trump: the trend would be for countries to do more and more to protect and strengthen key industries, something that could also spread to the EU.
The news highlights that, despite the more protectionist environment, the report sees resilience in the US and China: the US would grow by around 2.3% in 2026 due to ‘traditional’ factors (real income, flexible labour market, fiscal support and private investment) and the push from AI, although with the risk of a correction if these expectations do not materialise. China, meanwhile, would strengthen its industrial position by producing higher-value and more sophisticated goods, making exports cheaper and gaining market share, which puts pressure on similar export-oriented economies (such as Germany and Japan). For Europe, Cooper warns of a loss of competitiveness exacerbated by expensive energy, excessive regulation and technological backwardness, and calls for swift action to raise productivity and reorient strategic sectors.
