{"id":2258,"date":"2018-05-11T13:53:47","date_gmt":"2018-05-11T13:53:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/work2.dossetenta.com\/lupicino\/2018\/05\/11\/trumps-fallout-with-iran-six-consequences-for-the-eu\/"},"modified":"2022-08-30T13:36:58","modified_gmt":"2022-08-30T12:36:58","slug":"trumps-fallout-with-iran-six-consequences-for-the-eu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lupicinio.com\/en\/trumps-fallout-with-iran-six-consequences-for-the-eu\/","title":{"rendered":"TRUMP\u2019S FALLOUT WITH IRAN: SIX CONSEQUENCES FOR THE EU"},"content":{"rendered":"

(originally published in Expansi\u00f3n<\/em> under the title: \u201cSeis consecuencias del \u2018snap back\u2019 de Trump\u201d<\/em>)<\/p>\n

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Madrid, 9th May 2018<\/em> \u2013 With little concern for the opinion of the rest of the international community (including the International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA) which maintains that Iran has continued to comply with its obligations under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Trump has, perhaps predictably, based his exit from the JCPOA on accusations levelled by Israel on 30th April. That his position is diametrically opposed to that of the European leaders (such as Macron, Merkel and Mogherini, amongst others) does not seem to have bothered the American president. The immediate effect of the US\u2019 withdrawal from the JCPOA is the \u201csnap-back\u201d, or automatic reinstatement, of sanctions that have been suspended since the JCPOA entered into force in January 2016. Faced with this unilateral change in direction, and with no precedent for such a situation, European business must manage the new level of geopolitical risk and adapt to the new rules of the game, as well as finding a way to successfully deal with the possible impact of US sanctions.<\/p>\n

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  1. Macro-economic consequences. <\/strong>The inevitable increase in oil prices (which have already been on the rise for the last three months) will have a negative effect on economic growth in Spain. Our country imports 98% of its fossil fuels, and the domino effect that any price increase has on our Consumer Price Index and the competitiveness of our exports is well-known. According to the Bank of Spain, a 10% increase in crude oil prices leads to an immediate 10% increase in the CPI, and 20% over a six months period.<\/li>\n
  2. Secondary sanctions<\/strong>. US secondary sanctions consist in the prohibition of (i) subsidiaries of US companies established in other countries or (ii) non-US companies with presence in the US, carrying out business with sanctioned countries. The return of secondary sanctions will affect investment in Iran by European companies with interests in the US. For example, the French oil giant Total hopes to maintain \u2013 via a waiver from authorities in Washington \u2013 both its Iranian and US investments.<\/li>\n
  3. Extraterritorial effect of US sanctions. <\/strong>The extraterritorial effect of the US sanctions refers to the potential that these sanctions have to limit the actions of third-parties in sanctioned countries. It is of note that US sanctions in global, cross-border sectors, such as banking and insurance, can significantly limit the operations, exports and investment of European companies in Iran. The European banking sector\u2019s fear of facing sanctions from the Federal Reserve or the OFAC, as well as fear that their dollar clearance will be revoked, vastly reduces the ability for our businesses to operate in Iran.<\/li>\n
  4. Increase in regional tensions.<\/strong> Trump\u2019s decision comes in part as a recognition of Israeli concerns regarding Iranian activities in some of the least stable countries in the region. The US\u2019 withdrawal from the JCPOA could be used by Iranian hardliners to criticise moderate policy and gain electoral momentum. Rouhani, who himself has subscribed to a more moderate political stance, has already appealed to Iranian nationalism in his reaction to the announcement. The current situation could well increase regional tensions, furthering religious conflicts in the area and augmenting the risk to European investment, not only in the already troubled Yemen, Syria, Lebanon and Iraq, but also in some of the more prosperous Gulf States.<\/li>\n
  5. Knock-on effect.<\/strong> The White House\u2019s decision could have a knock-on effect on its closest allies (Australia, Canada, Japan, Gulf States and South Korea), who may follow the example set by the US and introduce sanctions against Iran. Consequently, European businesses that work in these countries should keep in mind the possible impact of these sanctions on their activity in Iran.<\/li>\n
  6. Opportunity. <\/strong>In spite of the vast uncertainty surrounding the return of sanctions, recent events will also offer the opportunity for Spanish and European businesses to increase their trade with Iran. With these sanctions, US companies and their subsidiaries will disappear from the greatest emerging power in the Middle East. If the EU refuses to engage with the \u2018snap-back\u2019 of sanctions, as has been suggested will be the case by Mogherini, they will be securing their companies\u2019 access to a market of over 75 million people, with oil production levels approaching 4 million barrels per day.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Jos\u00e9 Mar\u00eda Vi\u00f1als Camallonga – Partner, Director of International Operations, Director of the Madrid Office<\/p>\n

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    L\u2019UE, l\u2019IRAN ET LE \u201cSNAP BACK\u201d DE TRUMP<\/strong><\/p>\n

    Madrid, 9 mai 2018.- <\/em>Malgr\u00e9 l\u2019opinion du reste de la communaut\u00e9 internationale (y compris de l\u2019Agence internationale de l\u2019\u00e9nergie atomique dite AIEA), qui maintient que l\u2019Iran s\u2019acquitte correctement de ses obligations sous l\u2019Accord Nucl\u00e9aire (AN), Trump a, non sans pr\u00e9vision, fond\u00e9 sa sortie unilat\u00e9rale de l\u2019AN sur les accusations lanc\u00e9es par Isra\u00ebl le 30 avril dernier. De plus, les avis et positions diam\u00e9tralement oppos\u00e9es des leaders europ\u00e9ens (comme Macron, Merkel ou Mogherini, entre autres) n\u2019ont pas paru \u00eatre pertinents aux yeux du pr\u00e9sident am\u00e9ricain. L\u2019effet imm\u00e9diat du retrait des Etats Unis de l\u2019AN repr\u00e9sente un \u00ab\u00a0snap back<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb ou retour automatique des sanctions qui, depuis l\u2019entr\u00e9e en vigueur de l\u2019AN en janvier 2016, avaient \u00e9t\u00e9 suspendues. Face \u00e0 ce changement unilat\u00e9ral sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent, les entreprises europ\u00e9ennes doivent \u2013d\u2019un c\u00f4t\u00e9- g\u00e9rer le nouveau risque g\u00e9opolitique et s\u2019adapter aux nouvelles r\u00e8gles du jeu, et de l\u2019autre, faire face au possible impact que les sanctions am\u00e9ricaines pourraient leur causer.<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Impact macro<\/strong>. L\u2019in\u00e9vitable hausse du prix du p\u00e9trole (dont le prix est d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e0 la hausse depuis quelques mois) affectera la croissance \u00e9conomique espagnole de mani\u00e8re n\u00e9gative. Notre pays importe 98% des combustibles fossiles qu\u2019il consomme, et l\u2019effet domino qu\u2019a toute augmentation de son prix sur notre Indice des Prix \u00e0 la Consommation ainsi que sur la comp\u00e9titivit\u00e9 de nos exports, est notoire. Selon la Banque d\u2019Espagne, une hausse de 10% du prix du baril provoque une hausse imm\u00e9diate d\u20191\/10 de l\u2019IPC, et de 2\/10 sur six mois.<\/li>\n
    2. Sanctions secondaires<\/strong>. Les secondary sanctions <\/em>am\u00e9ricaines consistent en l\u2019interdiction de que (i) des filiales de holdings am\u00e9ricaines \u00e9tablies dans d\u2019autres pays\u00a0; ou (ii) des entreprises non-am\u00e9ricaines pr\u00e9sentes aux Etats-Unis, traitent avec des pays sanctionn\u00e9s. Le retour des secondary sanctions <\/em>affecterait donc les investissements en Iran par les entreprises europ\u00e9ennes ayant des int\u00e9r\u00eats aux Etats-Unis. Le g\u00e9ant p\u00e9trolier fran\u00e7ais Total, par exemple, esp\u00e8re pouvoir maintenir ses investissements tant en Iran qu\u2019aux Etats-Unis, gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 un waiver<\/em> ou une exemption octroy\u00e9e par les autorit\u00e9s de Washington.<\/li>\n
    3. Les effets extraterritoriaux des Sanctions des Etats-Unis<\/strong>. Les effets extraterritoriaux des sanctions impos\u00e9es par les Etats-Unis r\u00e9f\u00e8rent \u00e0 la capacit\u00e9 de ces derniers \u00e0 limiter la conduite de tiers non-am\u00e9ricains dans des pays sanctionn\u00e9s. Il est important de souligner que les sanctions am\u00e9ricaines dans des secteurs globaux et transversaux tels que le secteur bancaire et les assurances pourraient significativement limiter les op\u00e9rations, exports et investissements d\u2019entreprises europ\u00e9ennes en Iran. La crainte de la banque europ\u00e9enne d\u2019\u00eatre sanctionn\u00e9e par la R\u00e9serve F\u00e9d\u00e9rale ou la OFAC, ainsi que celle de se faire retirer sa licence lui permettant de traiter en dollars (dollar clearance<\/em>), r\u00e9duit fortement la capacit\u00e9 de nos entreprises \u00e0 op\u00e9rer en Iran.<\/li>\n
    4. Hausse de la tension r\u00e9gionale<\/strong>. La d\u00e9cision de Trump consacre \u00e9galement la pr\u00e9occupation isra\u00e9lienne \u00e0 propos des activit\u00e9s d\u2019Iran dans les pays plus instables de la zone. Face au retrait am\u00e9ricain de l\u2019AN, les secteurs iraniens durs et intransigeants peuvent profiter de l\u2019opportunit\u00e9 pour critiquer les approches mod\u00e9r\u00e9es et s\u2019appropier de l\u2019\u00e9lan \u00e9lectoral. Rouhani lui-m\u00eame a d\u00e9j\u00e0 appel\u00e9 au nationalisme iranien au travers de sa premi\u00e8re r\u00e9action \u00e0 l\u2019annonce. La situation actuelle augmenterait les tensions r\u00e9gionales, alimentant les conflits religieux dans la zone et augmentant le risque d\u2019investissements europ\u00e9ens dans les pays prosp\u00e8res du Golfe, en plus d\u2019autres pays controvers\u00e9s tels que le Y\u00e9men, la Syrie, le Liban et l\u2019Iraq.<\/li>\n
    5. L\u2019effet d\u2019entrainement<\/strong>. La d\u00e9cision de la Maison Blanche pourrait engendrer un effet d\u2019entrainement de ses pays alli\u00e9s les plus proches (l\u2019Australie, le Canada, le Japon, les pays du Golfe ou la Cor\u00e9e du Sud), lesquels pourraient suivre l\u2019exemple de leur alli\u00e9 et prendre des mesures punitives contre l\u2019Iran. En ce sens, les entreprises europ\u00e9ennes op\u00e9rant dans ces pays devront tenir compte du possible impact de ces sanctions sur leur activit\u00e9 iranienne.<\/li>\n
    6. Une opportunit\u00e9<\/strong>. Malgr\u00e9 toutes les incertitudes ressenties, une opportunit\u00e9 s\u2019ouvre aux entreprises espagnoles et europ\u00e9ennes d\u2019augmenter leur commerce avec et en Avec les sanctions, les entreprises am\u00e9ricaines ainsi que leurs filiales disparaitront de la grande puissance \u00e9mergente du Moyen Orient. Si l\u2019UE r\u00e9siste au d\u00e9fi du snap back<\/em> am\u00e9ricain, comme l\u2019a annonc\u00e9 Mogherini, elle assurera \u00e0 ses entreprises un march\u00e9 comptant plus de 75 millions d\u2019habitants et dont la production de p\u00e9trole fr\u00f4le les 4 millions de barils journaliers.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      (originally published in Expansi\u00f3n under the title: \u201cSeis consecuencias del \u2018snap back\u2019 de Trump\u201d)     Madrid, 9th May 2018 \u2013 With little concern for the opinion of the rest of the international community (including the International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA) which maintains that Iran has continued to comply with its obligations under the Joint…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1538,1483,1754],"tags":[1396,1738,1432,1579],"class_list":["post-2258","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-noticias-en","category-newsletters-en","category-articulo-de-opinion-en","tag-eeuu-en-2","tag-iran-en-en","tag-trump-en-2","tag-usa-en-en"],"yoast_head":"\nTRUMP\u2019S FALLOUT WITH IRAN: SIX CONSEQUENCES FOR THE EU | Lupicinio<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, 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